Clayton has asked me to discuss my most controversial theory, my previous statement that when I turn 30 I will be more athletic than the average 18 year old male. Like Vz’s theory, this is obviously a personal theory, but is one that I think sets up for a good conversation for all of us – who needless to say, aren’t getting any younger. When I first uttered this statement, it elicited much concern and criticism along with calls of insanity and complete ridiculousness. While this may seem at first like simply a brash and outlandish statement, I still stand by this claim and will attempt here in this post to convince you of its validity.
While Clayton among others seemed to expect me to talk about my specific athletic talents, or use arguments like “I can play 5 games of basketball and not be sore the next day,” I am going to take a more rational and empirical approach to my argument. I will offer specific and scientific evidence as to why the athletic abilities of the average 18 year old and then explain why I believe I am more athletic than this. In conclusion I will offer a couple quantitative examples of specific athletic skills, only to back up my argument.
I believe that my argument for my theory can actually be stated more precisely by its inverse: the average 18 year old is less athletic than me. The key to my argument is the term “average.” The reason I will be more athletic than the average 18 year old male when I am 30 is because the average 18 year old is not very athletic. Here is my evidence. 1) According to the American Obesity Association, in a 1999 survey, 33% of adolescent boys (ages 12-19) are overweight. This means that they have over a 25 Body Mass Index (BMI). This figure rose 250% since 1975, an average of a 10% increase each year. While reports indicate that adolescent obesity continues to accelerate, we can safely assume that this trend, in the very least, continues. So if we take this trend out 11 more years to the year 2010 when I will be 30, we can predict that it has increased 110% from its 1999 rate, to a figure of 68% of adolescent males will be overweight in 2010. Over 2/3 of 12-19 year olds will be overweight. If you say, this figure includes teenagers as well, the study also shows that in 2000 66% of adults were obese, so clearly, obesity rises as the age increases. So theoretically, we could predict that over 68% of 18 year olds are overweight. 2) If we add to this fact a CRC Health Group study that shows that only 50% of 12-21 year olds engage in regular physical activity,(indicating that less than 50% play sports regularly) we can assume that the average 18 year old ranks low on athleticism. To summarize, by 2010, over 68% of 18 year old males will be overweight (meaning, have higher than a 25 BMI). My BMI is 22.1. It has stayed that way for the past 5 years so we can assume that it will not change dramatically in a year and a half. So if we compare those stats, and take into account that only half of 18 year olds engage in regular physical activity, we can pretty safely assume that I will be more athletic than the average 18 year old.
One further point. 3) According to the SAT research group, male SAT scores rose 20 pts from 200-2008. Using this trend, we can presume that the difference between 1999 (the year I took the SAT) and 2010, the average male SAT score will have risen 27 pts. The number of male students who take the SAT has increased by 2% each year during that period, meaning that 25% more male students are attempting to go to college than when I was 18. All this evidence suggests that as college selectivity increases, and students attempt to become more competitive in college applications, they must take more AP courses and spend more time doing school work now than 15 years ago. This evidence simply adds to my argument that 18 year olds would participate less in physical activity and therefore, have a low athleticism. I believe that if you take my argument about BMI and obesity, my evidence about physical activity, and my argument about the requirements of scholasticism and its negative effects on athleticism, I believe it is logical and likely that when I am 30 I will be more athletic than the average 18 year old in 2010. In fact, this argument suggests that likely, most of you will be more athletic than the average 18 year old as well.
If this empirical argument has not convinced you, here are two quantitative addendums to my argument. These deal with specific athletic skills and are in no way meant to be exhaustive, or to serve as my argument, only to represent a few examples that add to my argument. 1) According to a University of Texas study, the average vertical jump of 18 year old males is 19.5 inches. My vertical at age 29 is around 27 inches, already 7 inches over the average 18 year old. 2) According to BodyBuilding.com, the average 18 year old make can bench press (1 rep max) 135 lbs. While I am not proud of my max bench press, at this point it is likely no lower than 170-180 lbs. (just last spring I could bench 165 lbs 4 reps). These two examples are only meant to add to my theory, while my primary argument lies in the empirical evidence listed above.
In conclusion, I maintain my theory that the AVERAGE 18 year old is less athletic than I will be at age 30 in 2010. Not only in two athletic skills that are quantifiable and measureable (vertical jump and bench press), are my skills superior to the average 18 year old, but if current trends continue, as most medical professionals and researchers claim, half of all 18 year old do not participate in regular athletic activity (whereas I do), and over 2/3 of average 18 year old males rank at least 3 points higher than me on BMI and are classified therefore as overweight and obese. While obesity does not necessarily entail less athleticism, out of 2/3 of 18 year old who are overweight, it is reasonable to say that ½ of those males would not be athletic as a 30 year old with a 22 BMI who participates in physical activity and has at least a few higher measureable athletic skills. While I can predict a few contentions to my argument (sports are a factor in college applications, some overweight people are still athletic, the BMI is not a good indicator of athleticism) I believe the body of my evidence is more than enough to prove my theory.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
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11 comments:
i was fortunate enough to be one of the few people who were present when kris first crapped out this absurd comment. Psalm 100 Concert of 2004.
1. Billy should be offended that Kris was not paying attention to the singing instead of thinking of absurdities.
2. any theory that says in it's first defense, "my theory can actually be stated more precisely by its inverse" should immediately be discarded. the reader should close the window and carry on to more important things. but since kris is my friend, i continued reading, and hence wasted my time.
3. check your calendar and don't fall for his blunder.....2010 is 1 year away, not 11 years away
4. i am impressed by your ability to find useful data.
5. can i have citations? or was there a reason why they were left out?
6. just because younger people are smarter than we were when we took the SAT, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are less athletic
7. ****when you first said this statement, you didn't really mean "average." taken in context, i remember you implying that you would be more athletic than nearly all 18 year olds.
8. in all honesty, i believe that you were at your peak athletic ability (100%) during my sophomore year. that was 4 years ago. i would say that you have dropped considerably since then, to a gracious estimate of 70% of your peak ability. given the "current trend," you will be at 61% of your peak ability when you turn 30. therefore, you have lost nearly 40% of your athletic ability since you made that verbal blunder.
www.askeddie.com
Kris, I feel like I was there when you made this claim, or at least heard about it right after you made it. I thought that you were claiming that you were more athletic than the average 18 year old who was in the same general physical condition as yourself (generally athletic, not obese, etc). For example, your 30 year old self could take on your 18 year old self and win. Maybe I'm wrong...but I just wanted to put that out there, because if that's what you originally meant, your obesity "statistics" and "empirical data" (if we can call it that...bodybuilding.com?!) is kind of misleading.
Also, I think an actual demonstration might work better than all this "empirical evidence." Perhaps we can find a group of 18 year males to play you in basketball...I'm sure between VZ's church league and Brent working with CollegeLife at Summit we could round up a decent group of "average" 18 year old males. :)
You have only accounted for American males in this study. If we are taking your literal "average 18 year old" instead of what you clearly meant when you originally said this (average 18 year old who has ever played sports), then I am going to have to ask that you throw out your statistics and use global figures. I think if you do that then those BMI numbers are going to go considerably down. The sedentary lifestyle of the average American teenager is mostly an anomoly in other parts of the world.
Don't knock having an over-25 BMI. Some people think that is sexy.
I'm impressed with your use of statistics, but agree with Brent about needing global figures. "The average 18 year old" is a very broad group.
I think one thing we should do is define "athletic" (yes Clatyon, I know I should go to law school). Does "athletic" simply address physical fitness? Or does it also include the ability to combine physical fitness with mental fitness (i.e. decision making, hand-eye coordination, etc.)
The former is indeed beneficial and worth arguing as it pertains to oneself. It means you are in good health, that you likely eat healthy and exercise regularly, and that you are likely promoting quality and longevity of life - at least in the physical sense.
However, if "athletic" refers to the later definition (for which I would argue), then one must also possess an advantage in the area of mental capacity. Physical capability is of no use unless equipped with the ability to know how to apply it.
My read on the situation tells me that this argument was probably first made in reference to a typical male discussion on something like who could school who in a game of one-on-one basketball. Physical fitness is not the only requirement necessary in order perform well in athletic competition. After all, BMI, bench max, and level of physical activity don't translate into knowing how to quickly and efficiently assess when and how to contest your opponent's shot.
This is common sense to anyone who has played an organized sport before. Of course, there is a secondary element to be addressed. As one grows older, he or she is likely also to grow wiser (this is true with a variety of things including sports). Thus, the ability to read a defense may become easier with age. However, split-second decision making is a different story. At this point I would like to refer the following article:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,509362,00.html
With this in mind, though one may be able to 1) be in better shape at 30 than at 18 and 2) be more knowledgeable about a sport, he or she may still not be able to claim a definitive advantage because according to UVA, mental capability begins to deteriorate at age 27.
This seems to coincide with ehasty's 8th point. This also puts an additional burden of proof upon the theorist who must argue that his mental capability and decision making could be as sharp as an 18 year old. Obesity and Benching maxes don't prove that.
Andrew - I am pretty sure your argument weighs against Kris. While at some point, I am sure he became "wiser" and therefore more athletic, at his current old age I would say he is most definitely in the senile stage.
kris,
you can't round up on evidence. evidence given in a range or comparing two time periods can NOT, never, at all be rounded up to the next time period following unless specifically noted in the results. Event then they should be questioned.
Wow. Way to kill the party, Kris. I guess I better start writing my post for next week now.
Kris is racist/imperialist. How come he only considers obese American kids as the "average 18 year old?" What about all the healthy nations around the world whose 18 year olds are probably much more athletic than Kris? I guess they don't count though.
sounds like glenn had a long week. ha
is there any way to nix this having to type in a word verification every time?
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